Green shoots appearing in UK property market, good news for expat house buyers
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), whose members carry out property surveys and valuations for mortgage banks and building societies, are reporting fewer house price falls in March, with an expectation that prices may start to rise in the next 12 months.
RICS surveys are an important forward looking indicator as to the health of the UK property market, says expat mortgage broker Offshoreonline’s Guy Stephenson. Highlighting the sometimes contradictory picture in the UK housing market, Stephenson continues, “The Bank of England began pushing UK Base Rate sharply higher, mainly from August 2022, so UK mortgage rates inevitably rose steeply too. This caused a market shock, and housing demand declined rapidly in late 2022, something which has been widely reported. Now, though, we have a new report from the surveyors whose job it is to determine the fair value of a property being bought. After a prolonged period of UK property prices falls, RICS are now far more optimistic on the prospects for the market in 12 months.”
This chimes with data released by property portal Rightmove too, who are reporting both an increase in the supply of homes coming onto the market and deals completed. Comparing the position today to that in 2019, before the pandemic, Rightmove note that the housing market is remaining surprisingly robust, given the economic factors that have affected home-movers over the last six months. Their spokesman said, “While the market is not moving at the exceptional pace that it has been over the last couple of years, it’s a positive sign that sales at a national level are being agreed at the same rate as the last more normal market of 2019, though there are regional differences across Great Britain.”
Expat mortgage broker Offshoreonline has reported its best figures for expat mortgage enquiries in March since before the pandemic, with volumes now equalling pre-pandemic levels.
“In a very short space of time the main structural issue with the UK housing market, a lack of supply, seems to have been turned around. If anything, we are now seeing an excess of supply over demand, which makes for an ideal situation for expat home buyers. They have more choice and sellers will be more likely to take a good offer, given the shortage of UK buyers, “added Stephenson.
Home-movers are returning to London
During the pandemic, lots of people looked to move to the coast and rural areas in order to access more green space. Rightmove say they have seen a reversal of that trend in recent months, with people looking to return to cities, with much of the increase in sales agreed being on flats, particularly in London. Across all property types, sales are up by 11%, but when compared to March 2019, sales agreed on flats in London alone are up 23%, compared to the same period in 2019.
Are mortgage rates going up or down?
After the chaos of the mini budget in late 2022, happily, expat mortgage rates have settled. The UK economy is still performing well, it has avoided recession and retail sales are still stronger than most people expected. So expect the UK base Rate to stay at or around current levels for a while, thinks Offshoreonline. “We are not going to get back to the unnaturally low UK Base levels seen over the last 10 years, as ultimately these were due to the Bank of England intervening to offset the dramatic impact of firstly, the financial crash in 2008, and then subsequently the pandemic. Whilst forecasting interest rates is virtually impossible, our view is that the long term average for the UK now is probably a UK Base rate in a range somewhere between 2.5% to 4%, or perhaps a little more, with mortgage rates around 1% above these figures. We currently have a range of lenders offering expat mortgages from 4.99% to 5.40%, so there is a good choice on offer, “ends Stephenson.
« Back to News
Latest News
- Great time for US dollar earners and US residents to invest in European real estate
- Good news for expat UK house buyers, as expat mortgage rates start to ease
- Falling house prices, high mortgage rates – should UK expats buy a house now?
- The 5 cheapest cities for first-time buyers
- Why getting a mortgage in France is now so much easier for buyers from the USA than the UK
- Green shoots appearing in UK property market, good news for expat house buyers
- UK Housing asking prices see smallest February increase on record
- Optimistic signs in expat buy to let market as mortgages rates fall and prices stabilise
- Expat UK property investing: Three positive signs, thinks broker
- Expat buy to let market still strong after two rate rises, says broker
- Recovery and strength in the UK housing market for 2022?
- Expat broker optimistic on post Covid UK buy to let housing market
- Broker warns over mortgage payment holidays
- Buying UK buy to let property after lockdown – expats will have the upper hand, thinks broker
- Expat lenders react to keep expat mortgage deal flowing during COVID-19 crisis
- Coronavirus impact on UK housing might be short lived, thinks expat mortgage broker
- Getting a mortgage whilst living abroad or getting a mortgage after you have moved abroad.
- What Happens when my UK Expat Mortgage Expires?
- Buy to let bargains abound, thanks to Brexit effect, thinks broker
- Expats increasingly vulnerable to new build deposit loss
- UK house hunters lead 6% growth in French non-resident property transactions
- Expat Buy to Let Mortgage Rates Cut Again
- Brexit fears give expats the edge, as UK buyers shun property
- Mortgage tax changes in Spain help buyers
- Expat mortgage broker predicts banks will not pass on full Base Rate rise to mortgage holders.
- Falling Expat Mortgage Interest Rates and Weak UK Housing Market Favour Expat Buyers
- UK property beats pensions, says UK official study
- Taxes for UK expat landlords might not be so hard after all
- Why a sinking pound need not scupper your French property dream
- Is it time to add UK university fees to your expat mortgage?
- Resurgent Spanish property market prompts new mortgage launches
- The new landscape for UK property investors – still good value
- New UK Buy To Let Rules Will Impact Expat Property Buyers – 2017
- UK rent rises continue to outstrip inflation, expat buy to let remains popular
- UK Stamp Duty hike not as harsh as first feared for expat property buyers
- Do I qualify for expat or international mortgages?
- Brexit need not harm the expat mortgage market, thinks Offshoreonline
- UK stamp duty changes, capital gains tax changes will impact expat buy to let investors, so start planning your checklist now
- Booming London property rents continue to attract expat buy to let landlords
- New UK Stamp Duty Won’t Dent Appeal of Buy To Let Mortgages For Non UK Residents
- QE spells heaven for overseas property buyers in Europe
- Thinking about buying a house in 2015? For expats, the signs are good
- UK property prices on the up in 2015 good news for expat buyers
- UK Stamp Duty changes – the winners and losers
- French expat euro mortgage rates fall again
- New house price index to make life easier for French euro mortgage house buyers
- New Spanish government figures point to gentle housing market recovery
- Buyers forced out of London by spiralling property prices have helped fuel a 10% annual rise in asking prices in the south-east – a rate that has now outstripped inflation in the capital.
- UK student loans – plan now for flexibility
- Landlords enjoying “record income from letting